OPEN THREAD: Election Predictions

In the style of the Daily Kos, I thought in honor of the election day tomorrow, I’d create a place where everyone can leave their election predictions.

One suggestion, I know a lot of people like to log in annonymously, either log in with some kind of name or leave some kind of name at the end of your message so that we can give you proper accolades on Wednesday.

So here are the predictions:

1. Breakdown of the House of Representatives–how many seats for the Dems and Reps
2. US Senate
3. Governor’s Mansions
4. Local Races of interest:
* Doolittle vs. Brown
* Pombo vs. McNerney
* Siefferman vs. Rexroad
* Measure K
* Measures H & I (bonus for the Sacramento Measure L)
* Measure L (Choice Voting in Davis)
5. “Upset” of the Day

I’ll post mine in the comments as well

Author

  • David Greenwald

    Greenwald is the founder, editor, and executive director of the Davis Vanguard. He founded the Vanguard in 2006. David Greenwald moved to Davis in 1996 to attend Graduate School at UC Davis in Political Science. He lives in South Davis with his wife Cecilia Escamilla Greenwald and three children.

Categories:

Elections

60 comments

  1. House: Dems gain 25 seats, they hold a 227-208 advantage

    Senate:

    Republicans 50, Democrats 48, Inds 2
    Cheney is the tie breaker

    Ohio: Brown (D) wins
    Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) holds on and wins
    Pennsylvannia: Casey (D) in a cake walk
    New Jersey: Menendez (D) holds the seat
    Viriginia: Allen defeats Webb (D) in a nailbiter
    Missouri: McCaskill (D) wins a nail biter
    Montana: Tester (D) holds on to defeat Burns
    Tennessee: Corker (R) defeats Ford in a heartbreaker

    Governorships:

    Democrats 29, Republicans 21

    Basically the Dems are ahead in the polls in 13 of the up for grabs races, so I give them those and only those, they could actually get as high as 32 if there is a true wave.

    Local Races:

    Brown loses in a heartbreaker to Doolittle, unfortunately the registration in that district just too much to overcome.

    McNerney defeats Pombo, better registration numbers give him the edge.

    Rexroad destroys Siefferman, it would be a moral victory if Siefferman cracks 40 percent, sorry to say

    H&I show that endorsements beat $10 million, but by the skin of the teeth. I think the Sacramento measure goes down though.

    Target prevails 55-45. A valient grassroots effort comes up just short.

    Measure L goes down soundly to defeat, the public just doesn’t understand the process.

    UPSET OF THE DAY:

    Pederson defeats Jon Kyl for the Arizona seat giving the Democrats their elusive 51 seats (assuming that Lieberman does indeed stick with the Democratic caucus).

  2. House: Dems gain 25 seats, they hold a 227-208 advantage

    Senate:

    Republicans 50, Democrats 48, Inds 2
    Cheney is the tie breaker

    Ohio: Brown (D) wins
    Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) holds on and wins
    Pennsylvannia: Casey (D) in a cake walk
    New Jersey: Menendez (D) holds the seat
    Viriginia: Allen defeats Webb (D) in a nailbiter
    Missouri: McCaskill (D) wins a nail biter
    Montana: Tester (D) holds on to defeat Burns
    Tennessee: Corker (R) defeats Ford in a heartbreaker

    Governorships:

    Democrats 29, Republicans 21

    Basically the Dems are ahead in the polls in 13 of the up for grabs races, so I give them those and only those, they could actually get as high as 32 if there is a true wave.

    Local Races:

    Brown loses in a heartbreaker to Doolittle, unfortunately the registration in that district just too much to overcome.

    McNerney defeats Pombo, better registration numbers give him the edge.

    Rexroad destroys Siefferman, it would be a moral victory if Siefferman cracks 40 percent, sorry to say

    H&I show that endorsements beat $10 million, but by the skin of the teeth. I think the Sacramento measure goes down though.

    Target prevails 55-45. A valient grassroots effort comes up just short.

    Measure L goes down soundly to defeat, the public just doesn’t understand the process.

    UPSET OF THE DAY:

    Pederson defeats Jon Kyl for the Arizona seat giving the Democrats their elusive 51 seats (assuming that Lieberman does indeed stick with the Democratic caucus).

  3. House: Dems gain 25 seats, they hold a 227-208 advantage

    Senate:

    Republicans 50, Democrats 48, Inds 2
    Cheney is the tie breaker

    Ohio: Brown (D) wins
    Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) holds on and wins
    Pennsylvannia: Casey (D) in a cake walk
    New Jersey: Menendez (D) holds the seat
    Viriginia: Allen defeats Webb (D) in a nailbiter
    Missouri: McCaskill (D) wins a nail biter
    Montana: Tester (D) holds on to defeat Burns
    Tennessee: Corker (R) defeats Ford in a heartbreaker

    Governorships:

    Democrats 29, Republicans 21

    Basically the Dems are ahead in the polls in 13 of the up for grabs races, so I give them those and only those, they could actually get as high as 32 if there is a true wave.

    Local Races:

    Brown loses in a heartbreaker to Doolittle, unfortunately the registration in that district just too much to overcome.

    McNerney defeats Pombo, better registration numbers give him the edge.

    Rexroad destroys Siefferman, it would be a moral victory if Siefferman cracks 40 percent, sorry to say

    H&I show that endorsements beat $10 million, but by the skin of the teeth. I think the Sacramento measure goes down though.

    Target prevails 55-45. A valient grassroots effort comes up just short.

    Measure L goes down soundly to defeat, the public just doesn’t understand the process.

    UPSET OF THE DAY:

    Pederson defeats Jon Kyl for the Arizona seat giving the Democrats their elusive 51 seats (assuming that Lieberman does indeed stick with the Democratic caucus).

  4. House: Dems gain 25 seats, they hold a 227-208 advantage

    Senate:

    Republicans 50, Democrats 48, Inds 2
    Cheney is the tie breaker

    Ohio: Brown (D) wins
    Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) holds on and wins
    Pennsylvannia: Casey (D) in a cake walk
    New Jersey: Menendez (D) holds the seat
    Viriginia: Allen defeats Webb (D) in a nailbiter
    Missouri: McCaskill (D) wins a nail biter
    Montana: Tester (D) holds on to defeat Burns
    Tennessee: Corker (R) defeats Ford in a heartbreaker

    Governorships:

    Democrats 29, Republicans 21

    Basically the Dems are ahead in the polls in 13 of the up for grabs races, so I give them those and only those, they could actually get as high as 32 if there is a true wave.

    Local Races:

    Brown loses in a heartbreaker to Doolittle, unfortunately the registration in that district just too much to overcome.

    McNerney defeats Pombo, better registration numbers give him the edge.

    Rexroad destroys Siefferman, it would be a moral victory if Siefferman cracks 40 percent, sorry to say

    H&I show that endorsements beat $10 million, but by the skin of the teeth. I think the Sacramento measure goes down though.

    Target prevails 55-45. A valient grassroots effort comes up just short.

    Measure L goes down soundly to defeat, the public just doesn’t understand the process.

    UPSET OF THE DAY:

    Pederson defeats Jon Kyl for the Arizona seat giving the Democrats their elusive 51 seats (assuming that Lieberman does indeed stick with the Democratic caucus).

  5. House Dem majority by 10
    Republicans with majority of 1 in Senate
    Governerships.. I’ll go with Doug
    Doolittle wins
    Pombo wins
    Sieferman wins

    No on K wins..
    Local H and I wins
    Measure L wins

    Doug.. I detect a level of cynicism
    about the choices that the voters will make on local cadidates and issues. Don’t despair.. fear and wedge issues only hold sway over the voter for so long.. people get tired of feeling afraid, angry and hopeless all the time. Remember the line in the movie “Shawshank Redemption”, “HOPE is a good thing!!”

  6. House Dem majority by 10
    Republicans with majority of 1 in Senate
    Governerships.. I’ll go with Doug
    Doolittle wins
    Pombo wins
    Sieferman wins

    No on K wins..
    Local H and I wins
    Measure L wins

    Doug.. I detect a level of cynicism
    about the choices that the voters will make on local cadidates and issues. Don’t despair.. fear and wedge issues only hold sway over the voter for so long.. people get tired of feeling afraid, angry and hopeless all the time. Remember the line in the movie “Shawshank Redemption”, “HOPE is a good thing!!”

  7. House Dem majority by 10
    Republicans with majority of 1 in Senate
    Governerships.. I’ll go with Doug
    Doolittle wins
    Pombo wins
    Sieferman wins

    No on K wins..
    Local H and I wins
    Measure L wins

    Doug.. I detect a level of cynicism
    about the choices that the voters will make on local cadidates and issues. Don’t despair.. fear and wedge issues only hold sway over the voter for so long.. people get tired of feeling afraid, angry and hopeless all the time. Remember the line in the movie “Shawshank Redemption”, “HOPE is a good thing!!”

  8. House Dem majority by 10
    Republicans with majority of 1 in Senate
    Governerships.. I’ll go with Doug
    Doolittle wins
    Pombo wins
    Sieferman wins

    No on K wins..
    Local H and I wins
    Measure L wins

    Doug.. I detect a level of cynicism
    about the choices that the voters will make on local cadidates and issues. Don’t despair.. fear and wedge issues only hold sway over the voter for so long.. people get tired of feeling afraid, angry and hopeless all the time. Remember the line in the movie “Shawshank Redemption”, “HOPE is a good thing!!”

  9. Siefferman was the big one locally. There just seemed to be a lot of problems there.

    I didn’t even mentioned the governor’s race because of how poorly Angelides ran.

    I think the No on K was run very well, swimming upstream and heavily outspent. And the Yes on H & I, I’m predicting a win there, which would be very impressive given PG&E’s spending.

  10. Siefferman was the big one locally. There just seemed to be a lot of problems there.

    I didn’t even mentioned the governor’s race because of how poorly Angelides ran.

    I think the No on K was run very well, swimming upstream and heavily outspent. And the Yes on H & I, I’m predicting a win there, which would be very impressive given PG&E’s spending.

  11. Siefferman was the big one locally. There just seemed to be a lot of problems there.

    I didn’t even mentioned the governor’s race because of how poorly Angelides ran.

    I think the No on K was run very well, swimming upstream and heavily outspent. And the Yes on H & I, I’m predicting a win there, which would be very impressive given PG&E’s spending.

  12. Siefferman was the big one locally. There just seemed to be a lot of problems there.

    I didn’t even mentioned the governor’s race because of how poorly Angelides ran.

    I think the No on K was run very well, swimming upstream and heavily outspent. And the Yes on H & I, I’m predicting a win there, which would be very impressive given PG&E’s spending.

  13. I’ve lived and voted in Davis for 27 years now and do not think that I have ever seen a local issue election won by the amount of money spent. Grassroots campaigns have lost because they were splintered, outmaneuvered ,poorly run or their message was rejected. Davis is a still a small enough community where grassroots volunteer efforts can prevail. Perhaps it has changed but the evidence is not there yet for me.

  14. I’ve lived and voted in Davis for 27 years now and do not think that I have ever seen a local issue election won by the amount of money spent. Grassroots campaigns have lost because they were splintered, outmaneuvered ,poorly run or their message was rejected. Davis is a still a small enough community where grassroots volunteer efforts can prevail. Perhaps it has changed but the evidence is not there yet for me.

  15. I’ve lived and voted in Davis for 27 years now and do not think that I have ever seen a local issue election won by the amount of money spent. Grassroots campaigns have lost because they were splintered, outmaneuvered ,poorly run or their message was rejected. Davis is a still a small enough community where grassroots volunteer efforts can prevail. Perhaps it has changed but the evidence is not there yet for me.

  16. I’ve lived and voted in Davis for 27 years now and do not think that I have ever seen a local issue election won by the amount of money spent. Grassroots campaigns have lost because they were splintered, outmaneuvered ,poorly run or their message was rejected. Davis is a still a small enough community where grassroots volunteer efforts can prevail. Perhaps it has changed but the evidence is not there yet for me.

  17. House – Democrats +20
    Senate- Democrats +2 (incl ind)
    Biggest Loser G.W. Bush followed closely by Fox News

    If you know where Cheney plans to hunt on election day stay away from that place

    Governorships – not relevant

    Target loses but honestly I do not care

    PG&E loses – helps wake up that company SAH

  18. House – Democrats +20
    Senate- Democrats +2 (incl ind)
    Biggest Loser G.W. Bush followed closely by Fox News

    If you know where Cheney plans to hunt on election day stay away from that place

    Governorships – not relevant

    Target loses but honestly I do not care

    PG&E loses – helps wake up that company SAH

  19. House – Democrats +20
    Senate- Democrats +2 (incl ind)
    Biggest Loser G.W. Bush followed closely by Fox News

    If you know where Cheney plans to hunt on election day stay away from that place

    Governorships – not relevant

    Target loses but honestly I do not care

    PG&E loses – helps wake up that company SAH

  20. House – Democrats +20
    Senate- Democrats +2 (incl ind)
    Biggest Loser G.W. Bush followed closely by Fox News

    If you know where Cheney plans to hunt on election day stay away from that place

    Governorships – not relevant

    Target loses but honestly I do not care

    PG&E loses – helps wake up that company SAH

  21. SAH: I gotta disagree on one point–Governorships are indeed relevent for a lot of reasons. Redistricting, but also mobilizing states for the presidential election. Plus if there are concerns about voting practices, the governors and Secs of State are vital to keeping the systems honest. The Republicans have used their dominance in the state houses to remake the country. The untold story of this election is the magnitude of the Democratic Governorship landslide.

  22. SAH: I gotta disagree on one point–Governorships are indeed relevent for a lot of reasons. Redistricting, but also mobilizing states for the presidential election. Plus if there are concerns about voting practices, the governors and Secs of State are vital to keeping the systems honest. The Republicans have used their dominance in the state houses to remake the country. The untold story of this election is the magnitude of the Democratic Governorship landslide.

  23. SAH: I gotta disagree on one point–Governorships are indeed relevent for a lot of reasons. Redistricting, but also mobilizing states for the presidential election. Plus if there are concerns about voting practices, the governors and Secs of State are vital to keeping the systems honest. The Republicans have used their dominance in the state houses to remake the country. The untold story of this election is the magnitude of the Democratic Governorship landslide.

  24. SAH: I gotta disagree on one point–Governorships are indeed relevent for a lot of reasons. Redistricting, but also mobilizing states for the presidential election. Plus if there are concerns about voting practices, the governors and Secs of State are vital to keeping the systems honest. The Republicans have used their dominance in the state houses to remake the country. The untold story of this election is the magnitude of the Democratic Governorship landslide.

  25. Hello Dave,

    Being an out-of-stater, I’ll hold off commenting on the local issues and candidates, which I haven’t been following.

    House: Democrats take back control after 12 years in the desert – a 225-210 majority (albeit after a few weeks of recounts and legal struggles in a handful of tight races).

    Senate: A far tougher call.

    51-49 Republican Retention. But:

    Missouri: Talent over McCaskill? I still think Talent squeaks it out, as he usually does. But this one’s a coin flip. It really is. It could come down to a few hundred votes. And a nasty legal battle.
    Pennsylvania: Casey (D) over Santorum (R)
    Ohio: Brown (D) over DeWine (R)
    Montana: Tester (D) over Burns (D)
    Tennessee: Corker (R) over Ford (D)
    Rhose Island: Whitehouse (D) over Chaffee (R)
    Maryland: Steele (surprise of night) over Cardin
    New Jersey: Menendez (D) over Kean (R)
    Virginia: Allen (R) squeaks it out over Webb (D)

    But my 51-49 prediction is premised on a Talent win. If he loses, it’s 50/50 and a fun ride in the Senate for the next two years.

    GOvernorships: Democrats 28, Republicans 22

  26. Hello Dave,

    Being an out-of-stater, I’ll hold off commenting on the local issues and candidates, which I haven’t been following.

    House: Democrats take back control after 12 years in the desert – a 225-210 majority (albeit after a few weeks of recounts and legal struggles in a handful of tight races).

    Senate: A far tougher call.

    51-49 Republican Retention. But:

    Missouri: Talent over McCaskill? I still think Talent squeaks it out, as he usually does. But this one’s a coin flip. It really is. It could come down to a few hundred votes. And a nasty legal battle.
    Pennsylvania: Casey (D) over Santorum (R)
    Ohio: Brown (D) over DeWine (R)
    Montana: Tester (D) over Burns (D)
    Tennessee: Corker (R) over Ford (D)
    Rhose Island: Whitehouse (D) over Chaffee (R)
    Maryland: Steele (surprise of night) over Cardin
    New Jersey: Menendez (D) over Kean (R)
    Virginia: Allen (R) squeaks it out over Webb (D)

    But my 51-49 prediction is premised on a Talent win. If he loses, it’s 50/50 and a fun ride in the Senate for the next two years.

    GOvernorships: Democrats 28, Republicans 22

  27. Hello Dave,

    Being an out-of-stater, I’ll hold off commenting on the local issues and candidates, which I haven’t been following.

    House: Democrats take back control after 12 years in the desert – a 225-210 majority (albeit after a few weeks of recounts and legal struggles in a handful of tight races).

    Senate: A far tougher call.

    51-49 Republican Retention. But:

    Missouri: Talent over McCaskill? I still think Talent squeaks it out, as he usually does. But this one’s a coin flip. It really is. It could come down to a few hundred votes. And a nasty legal battle.
    Pennsylvania: Casey (D) over Santorum (R)
    Ohio: Brown (D) over DeWine (R)
    Montana: Tester (D) over Burns (D)
    Tennessee: Corker (R) over Ford (D)
    Rhose Island: Whitehouse (D) over Chaffee (R)
    Maryland: Steele (surprise of night) over Cardin
    New Jersey: Menendez (D) over Kean (R)
    Virginia: Allen (R) squeaks it out over Webb (D)

    But my 51-49 prediction is premised on a Talent win. If he loses, it’s 50/50 and a fun ride in the Senate for the next two years.

    GOvernorships: Democrats 28, Republicans 22